We are almost certain that there will be a “traditional” year-end rally depending on what the ECB will do or not do. If it is only the “tradition” that justifies the rise of stock prices, it is perhaps not entirely appropriate to take additional risks. Common sense will probably come back in January, which means that some important moves could happen then.
The general consensus amongst the financial community is that we should underweight Wall Street and overweight European equities. On the other hand, it is clear that when New York stocks indices are sinking, the decline is even worse in Europe. So we wonder whether we should follow the “consensus”. In addition, the refugee crisis and the new war against terrorism are not likely to stimulate our economy.
In the absence of clear convictions, the Committee took an intermediate decision. Not convinced to increase the long-only risk, not wanting to further increase the overweight in European equities, the committee decided to strengthen flexible funds by increasing the fund Varenne Global and strengthen slightly the long-only part only by increasing the Pictet Security fund, which could benefit from the current geopolitical quagmire.
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