The upcoming central bank meetings on December 3 (ECB) and December 16 (FED) will be center stage again and dictate markets’ direction into year-end and into next year. The odds of US rate hike in December have increased substantially after the release of strong US labor data. ECB’s president Draghi reiterated the bank’s readiness to extend bond purchases beyond 2016 in case the bank does not see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation. Other instruments could also be activated. We think this should support the risk-on mode until March next year. A 25-basis-point increase shouldn’t have much of an impact on the economy, especially if the Fed makes it clear that that the pace of hiking will be very gradual for the foreseeable future. The lift-off would end the uncertainty that has weighed on markets so far this year. Market reaction however remains unpredictable. Find more in the attached report.
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